🚀 Tesla to Mars 🚀

[Pesala]

Model 3 Highland

The long anticipated Model 3 Refresh, code-named “Highland,” was released on September 1st in China. There, orders for the Model 3 have increased almost tenfold. It is also available in Norway (Set Vivaldi to automatically translate Norwegian to your preferred language). It will not be coming to the UK, the US, or Canada for a while, as far as I know.

Key Improvements

• Available in China and EU from 1st September 2023
• About 5% more expensive
• 1 inch Longer, and 1 inch less high. 0.219 drag coefficient vs 0.225 for previous Model 3
• 1 cubic ft more storage space
• Two New Colours: Stealth Grey and Ultra Red - optional colours are now free, even the Ultra Red, which was previously a $3,000 option.
• No more stalks — controls on steering wheel, including horn on the centre
• New Headlight and Tail Lights, removed Fog Lights
• Stronger doors for better side impact protection
• Improved suspension
• New wheel rims and tyres
• Interior LED Ambient Lighting
• New 15.4 inch touch screen with smaller bezels, brighter and more responsive
• 8 inch video screen for rear seat passengers with two headphone sockets
• 17 loudspeakers instead of 14, improved microphones, and passenger-side too, for clearer phone calls
• All-round acoustic glass and sound absorbing fabrics for 30% less noise from the road
• Ventilated front seats and perforated rear seats
• Separate climate controls for driver and front seat passenger
• 65 watt USB C charging, and improved blue tooth and WiFi connectivity
• Test Drive with the Fully Charged Show (Reviewers all seem to be enthusiastic about the improvements).

In the first full day of trading since the announcement, TSLA has risen by 4.69%. Growth in the last five years is now 14.62x (1,462%).
The Cybertruck launch will be coming soon, which may prove even more dramatic, as it has over two million pre-orders.

[Pesala]

Irrational Fear of EVs

The burning of 15 Tesla vehicles in Germany was arson

A left-wing radical group has claimed responsibility for the arson of 15 Teslas in Frankfurt-Fechenheim.

The act took place on the occasion of the IAA in Munich and in protest against the Tesla company and entrepreneur Elon Musk, according to an unverified and anonymous statement on the Internet.

"The corporation represents like no other the ideology of green capitalism and the continuing global and colonial destruction." Presenting e-cars as a climate-friendly alternative is a "cynical lie" because of the origin of the components, the letter said.”

They should read the Tesla Impact Report 2022 to learn about the lifetime environment impact of battery electric vehicles compared to that of petrol and diesel vehicles. Burning EVs has a far greater impact than they will have in ten years of driving, while replacing 15 ICE vehicles performing the same function. Of course, if everyone cycled or took public transport, the impact would be less, but that is not a practical choice for most people.

[Pesala]

The Cybertruck is Coming

Larry Ellison is the Chief Technical Officer and Co-founder of Oracle Software. Their software will be used in the Tesla Cybertruck Police car.

We are expecting an announcement soon about the Cybertruck Delivery Event in Texas, probably next month. Many vehicles have been seen on the roads being tested. Here are some key points from the Order Page for the Cybertruck.

• Cybertruck is built with an exterior shell made for ultimate durability and passenger protection. Starting with a nearly impenetrable exoskeleton, every component is designed for superior strength and endurance, from Ultra-Hard 30X Cold-Rolled stainless-steel structural skin to Tesla armor glass.
• With up to 3,500 pounds of payload capacity and adjustable air suspension, Cybertruck is the most powerful tool we have ever built, engineered with 100 cubic feet of exterior, lockable storage — including a magic tonneau cover that is strong enough to stand on.
• With the ability to pull near infinite mass and a towing capability of over 14,000 pounds, Cybertruck can perform in almost any extreme situation with ease.
• Raise and lower suspension four inches in either direction for easy access to Cybertruck or the vault, while self-leveling capabilities adapt to any occasion and assist with every job.
• From rugged to refined, Cybertruck is completely adaptable for your needs. Prepare for every experience with a versatile utilitarian design — including on-board power and compressed air.
• Now entering a new class of strength, speed and versatility—only possible with an all-electric design. The powerful drivetrain and low center of gravity provides extraordinary traction control and torque—enabling acceleration from 0-60 mph in as little as 2.9 seconds and up to 500 miles of range.

Will the Ford F150 lightning be able to compete when Ford are losing money on every sale, and the UAW are demanding massive pay increases for the assembly line workers?

Meanwhile, Tesla is planning to triple their workforce at the Austin Gigafactory from 20,000 currently, to 60,000 to prepare for the Cybertruck production ramp. At the end of 2022, there were 12,300 employees. They already have over 2 million pre-orders for the Cybertruck.

[Pesala]

Q3 2023 Conference Call

The share price has fallen about $30 since the close of trading on Wednesday. One could have bought more shares at a 12% discount today. Growth is still 1,223% over the last five years.

• The Model 3 update can now be ordered in Europe and the UK. The price is a few thousand pounds less than the old model, but it has many improvements, including better sound-proofing, enhanced audio system, and a more comfortable ride. The range and efficiency have improved due to a lower drag coefficient, but the top speed is now only 125 mph due to the softer tyres. Review.
• The first deliveries of the Cybertruck will take place at the Austin Gigafactory on November 30th when a Cybertruck Event will take place.
• The Cybertruck is bullet-proof. They unloaded a magazine of a Tommy Gun into the doors, but no bullets penetrated to the cabin.

[Pesala]

Barrons AI

Barrons market watch blame the EV stock falling on Tesla’s “price-war.” They regularly publish nonsense like this.
FYI: the Nasdaq fell today by 1.76% and, as usual, TSLA fell by more: 3.14%. The reasons for price fluctuations are many and complex, but it is basically supply and demand, as in any market. Fears about the war in the middle-east may be one factor. Wall Street analysts predict price targets only one year ahead. If the TSLA price goes up or down a bit, they adjust their targets to match.
The price drops for Tesla vehicles are adjusted in line with expected delivery times to balance their inventory, while keeping the factories running at full speed.

Buyers are paying much more for car loans, so a cheaper sticker price keeps the monthly repayments about the same. Tesla are on a long-term mission to make their cars more affordable. The new, and much improved, Model 3 is now cheaper than the previous version. They have fewer parts, and the cost to make them has reduced by about 8% — Tesla are in such a strong financial position that they can pass these cost savings on to consumers.

There are still no pricing or specifications for the Cybertruck, which will begin deliveries on November 30th at the Cyber event at the Austin Gigafactory. The rumours are they will be significantly higher than the announced prices four years ago, perhaps more than inline with inflation. It has improved greatly since the first prototype was shown. It now has rear-wheel steering, a powered tonneau cover, and suspension adjustable by 14 inches.

BP just order $100 million worth of Tesla Supercharger stands for their gas stations in the US. Tesla Megapacks are bringing in more revenue. There are no negative signs for the business, but the stock price falls anyway.

TSLA shares are currently available at the lowest price since May 2023. Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, or next month. In spite of recent price drops, TSLA is still 933% of what it was five years ago ($22.06).

[Pesala]

CyberTruck Event

Held on 30th November 2023.

Cybertruck Production Line
Do not expect to see many trucks produced this year. This is a new way of building vehicles. The target is to ramp up to 200K trucks a year. There is a huge backlog of orders. Order Page

Key Points

• Rear-wheel steering, steer by wire (ratio dependent on speed), smaller turning circle than a Model S.
• Bullet-proof exoskeleton
• Bi-directional charging. Power your home during power cuts with up to 11.5 KW
• 48 Volt low voltage circuit
• HEPA Filter
• CyberBeast = 845hp, 320m range, 0-60 = 2.6sec (with rollout), 130mph top speed, 11,000lbs towing, $96,390 estimate (due in 2024)
• Clear winner in Truck Pull Test (318ft vs 263ft for the closest rival, the Ford F-350 diesel truck)
• All-wheel drive = 600hp, 340m range, 0-60 = 4.1sec, 112mph top speed, 11,000lbs towing capacity, $68,890 estimate (due in 2024)
• Rear-wheel drive 250m range, 0-60 = 6.5sec, $49,890 estimate (due in 2025)
• Pricing includes $7,500 tax credit and fuel savings over 3 years
• Reserve order with a $250 deposit
• Delivered about a dozen Cybertrucks to their owners

[Pesala]

2.2 Million Pre-orders

• The Cybertruck now allegedly has 2.2 million pre-orders, with 10,000 new orders per day since the first deliveries on 30th November. Source
• On the last day of trading for 2023, $TSLA stock price was $248.48, 202% up on this time last year, and 1137% up on this time five years ago. Not quite going to Mars yet. Maybe next year.
• FSD v 12.1 Beta has gone out to 50,000 Tesla Employees. Version 12 uses end-to end neural-networks.
• 100 Semi-trucks have been made
• The compact Tesla is expected to go into production next year.
• The updated Model 3 will come to the US
• The Model Y is already the best-selling vehicle of any kind worldwide for 2023.

[Pesala]

FSD 12.1.2

Is this the start of the Robotaxi revolution? Whole Mars Catalog has been Beta testing FSD for years, and released this Thirty-minute video of version 12.1.2 Driving around San Francisco.

Version 12 is the first version to use end-to-end neural nets. 300,000 lines of code were removed since FSD version 11, so neural nets now make the decisions based on video input from millions of miles of real-world driving. Don't fall asleep at the wheel if you are a $TSLA investor. Shares are at the lowest prices (~$210) in the last three months. Anything can happen in the short-term due to world events, but Tesla continues to execute on production, world-wide sales, innovation, and on energy storage.

[Pesala]

FSD v12.3.1

The software is already in use by a number of selected testers. The software is so good now that it is almost ready for wide release (IMO).

Ensuring that all new customers will get to see it in action. If they bought a new Tesla using a referral link, they will get 3 months free subscription (worth $600).

This should be a watershed moment that greatly increases the number of users making use of the software.

With thousands more users, this will greatly accelerate the learning process so that it improves exponentially.

The $TSLA share price continues to fall. At market close today (25/3/2024) it was $172.63. Meanwhile, Cybertruck production is increasing and construction has begun on a new Megapack Gigafactory in Shanghai, which will eventually produce 10,000 Megapacks per year.

Updates are rolling out fast. The latest version released on 31/3/2024 is 12.3.3.

[Pesala]

False Report from Reuters

After a false report from Reuters on 5/4/2024 that the Compact Tesla was being cancelled, $TSLA stock fell from $170 to $161 in half an hour, until Elon Musk said that Reuters is lying (again).

Warning to Investors

False rumours like this are typically spread by short-sellers who can make big profits from the rapid changes in the stock price that such rumours often cause.

Do not panic if the price drops. Do your own investigation into the rumour, and keep your focus on the long term.

5th April 2024: After the false rumours about the Compact Car being cancelled, Elon Musk announced the unveiling of the Robotaxi on August 8th. The compact car and the Robotaxi are different products, but will presumably share the same platform. It seems likely to me that the date of the reveal was announced early to counteract the false report by Reuters.

$TSLA closed at $164.90, but after hours is already back up to about $172.

[Pesala]

(Supervised) FSD 12.3.3

With the latest version comes a long-awaited name change. Clearly, a lot of non-technical users do not understand what Beta means. Beta software can make serious errors and FSD is no different. The driver must be attentive and ready to take over at a moment’s notice. Every Tesla crash while Autopilot or FSD has been active can be attributed to the driver not paying attention.

As the software gets better, drivers may get more complacent. This video is typical; the car drives without any intervention other than the driver touching the wheel from time to time. I wish all beta testers would keep their hands on the wheel at all times, even though the software is much more attentive than the average driver. One Billion miles have been driven on FSD without a single death. The number of miles driven is rising exponentially now that version 12.3.3 is available as a free trial to all Tesla owners with a compatible vehicle.

Uninterrupted Drive.

Most Wall Street analysts do not include revenue for FSD in their financial models, so their price targets are much more bearish than those like ARK Invest, who do. Will today be another green day, or will Elon’s Starlink battle with Brazil make the price drop again?

There is never a dull moment for $TSLA investors.,

(Supervised) FSD v.12.3.4

A day later and another update going out as a free one month trial and to legacy Tesla Model S/X owners.
12/4/2024: FSD Subscription halved from $199 to $99 per month.

[Pesala]

Q1 Earnings

Several key announcements have led to a big surge in the $TSLA stock price. Ron Baron was interviewed on Squawkbox CNBC yesterday and reaffirmed his optimism for the future of Tesla, saying that the stock price had “officially bottomed.”

From about $140 on Monday, to $145 on Tuesday, $160 on Wednesday, and $170 on Thursday, it is up again to $173 after trading hours.

FSD v.12.3.5 was released, and continues to amaze those testing it.
The Model 3 Performance was released in the US and Europe, and is expected to sell well.

[Pesala]

China Visit

Elon visited China yesterday, and announced a deal with Baidu, who make autonomous software, so they now have the mapping data needed to roll out FSD in China. $TSLA surged to almost $200 on Monday, and closed at $183.28 today.

FSD v.12.3.6 is rolling out to many more customers today.

Tesla Energy made 24.6% profit margins in Q1, compared to 18.5% for automotive.
Megapack deployments are expect to increase by at least 75% next year.

[Pesala]

Automated Vehicle Act

On May 20th 2024 the Automated Vehicle Act gained the royal assent and became law in the UK.

All Tesla need to do now is the polish (Supervised) FSD so that it no longer needs a driver in the vehicle. Like Waymo, a remote technician could be contacted by passengers if the vehicle gets completely stuck.

FSD v 12.4 is now rolling out to employees. It promised five to ten times fewer interventions, and version 12.5 is waiting for release in mid-June. Former Prime Minister, Boris Johnson was Wowed by a ride in a Tesla with FSD.

I previously thought that the public release of FSD in Europe and the UK might take another five years yet to get past regulatory hurdles, but this news indicates that it could happen in two years or less. The improvements are now increasing exponentially, like those in other forms of AI.

[Pesala]

2018 Elon Musk Compensation Deal and Texas Incorporation

The deal that was made for Elon Musk’s compensation package back in 2018 was negated by a Delaware judge for being excessive. Although shareholders voted for it, and investors thought that the targets were unreachable, Tesla exceeded them, and Elon was awarded share options worth $56 Billion. The share price has gone up tenfold, so the value of the compensation has also gone up tenfold.

The judge’s decision meant that Elon was paid nothing, after he worked his butt off for five years, saving Tesla from bankruptcy, and growing its value more than 10x in five years. The lawyers who filed the case for a share holder with 9 shares claims $ Billions in fees. I hope then never get a cent.

Shareholders have again voted in favour of Elon receiving what he was promised, and in favour of moving the business incorporation from Delaware to Texas. Hopefully, this will put an end to this corrupt decision that broke the contract made by the Tesla board to compensate Elon for his valuable contribution to Tesla.

If the court continues to interfere, contrary to the wish of the shareholders, a new deal can be made in Texas.

With this news, the $TSLA share price is already up by about 7% today.

• In other news, the Prufrock-3 machine has completed the tunnel joining the Austin Gigafactory to the vehicle outbound lot on the opposite side of the highway, and is already on its way to its next job, escorted by a Cybertruck and other Tesla vehicles.
• In China, Supervised Full Self-driving is gearing up for release.

[Pesala]

Tesla 2024 Annual Shareholder Meeting

Voting

• Election of James Murdock and Kimball Musk as directors approved for three years
• Approval of executive compensation on a non-binding basis
• Appointment of pricewaterhousecoopers LLP as Tesla’s independent accounting firm for 2024
• Approval of redomestication of Tesla from Delaware to Texas¹
• Reapproval of Elon Musk’s 100% performance-based stock option award of 2018 (1.76 Billion Shares Voted in Favour of Musk Pay Package, 528.9 Million Against).

Elon Musk’s Presentation

• Most of the world does not yet understand the significance of Tesla Self-driving, which is heading towards unsupervised self-driving at an exponential rate. It will, without question, be safer than humans.
• Tesla owned fleet of robotaxis would be like Uber, Customer owned Teslas will be like AirBnB.
• Read the ARK Invest analysis for the most accurate estimate of Tesla’s value as a business of over $5 Trillion just based on vehicle autonomy, not including the Optimus humanoid robot.
• Tesla fleet is now six million cars
• Cybertruck production hit a record of 1,300 in a week
• Model 3 Performance is a great value product. Model Y is the best-selling car in the world
• Tesla Semi-truck economics are much better than diesel trucks. Will have a significant effect on Tesla revenues and total CO2 emission.
• Supercharging network still growing rapidly. Will spend $ 0.5 Billion by year end, and more chargers will be enabled for other vehicle manufacturers by using a charging adapter.
• Making good progress on the production of the 4680 battery. Lithium refinery in south Texas, and cathode manufacture at Austin help to protect supply chains.
• Megapack deployment heading towards a 200-300% increase in deployments from 15 GWh in 2023 to 40 GWh in 2024
• Tesla cars have the best available AI Chip, which was developed in-house. Hardware 3 is still improving. Hardware 4 data will be processed by the new data centre now under construction in the Austin Gigafactory extension. Hardware 4 is already in new cars. Hardware 5 is planned to be released in about 18 months, which will be another 10x improvement.
• A few Optimus robots are currently working in a Tesla factory. By next year it may be 1,000 when the next hardware version goes into small scale production.)

¹ Tesla do not waste time. “We have submitted all filings to effectuate our conversion into a Texas corporation and can confirm that the Company is now incorporated in Texas.” (Letter to Stockholders).

[Pesala]

Q2 Production and Delivery Results

Another excellent quarter with results that exceeded Wall Street consensus by some margin.

“Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2. About 33k more than production.
9.4 GWh of energy storage deployed. ”

The $TSLA share price rose to $231.26 at market close on 2/7/2024 from $209.86 at market close yesterday.

[evelinamazun]

This post is deleted!

[Pesala]

Robotaxi Event in Warner Bros Studios

• Elon arrived in a Cybercab. It has two seats, gull-wing doors, no steering wheel or pedals. Fastening the seatbelts automatically closes the doors. There were twenty prototypes, and thirty Model 3s and Ys configured as Robotaxis. The Cybercab will be available for purchase at about $30K, hopefully before 2027. Charging is by induction, so no need to plug it in. The boot is spacious.
• Manufacture will use the new unboxed process. The body is not Stainless Steel, further reducing costs and complexity.
• A prototype Robovan with a capacity of twenty (14 seated) was also shown. It can also be configured to carry goods.
• Humanoid Robots walked among the attendees and served drinks at the bar. Each was controlled by a human operator to talk with attendees at the event. Some years yet before the Optimus robot becomes significant, but the potential is huge.
• $TSLA stock fell after the event, as often seems to happen after events. An opportunity to grab a few more shares at about $220.

The Robovan

[Pesala]

Q3 Financial Results

I was amazed that $TSLA fell after the Robotaxi event. Even when Cybercabs were seen driving passengers without a driver, steering wheel, or pedals, some people still believe that FSD will never happen. It has already happened; Tesla are starting mass production within months.

Today, the share price rose by a massive 22.5% to from $213.65 at market close on Wednesday to over $261 just before market close today (Thursday).

Tesla Flips Overnight

Of course, shares can go down fast too. One never really knows what will happen in the short term, but the long-term trend is obvious to those of us who watch what Tesla is doing ($TSLA has grown 1,254% in the last five years).