🚀 Tesla to Mars 🚀
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FSD 12.1.2
Is this the start of the Robotaxi revolution? Whole Mars Catalog has been Beta testing FSD for years, and released this Thirty-minute video of version 12.1.2 Driving around San Francisco.
Version 12 is the first version to use end-to-end neural nets. 300,000 lines of code were removed since FSD version 11, so neural nets now make the decisions based on video input from millions of miles of real-world driving. Don't fall asleep at the wheel if you are a $TSLA investor. Shares are at the lowest prices (~$210) in the last three months. Anything can happen in the short-term due to world events, but Tesla continues to execute on production, world-wide sales, innovation, and on energy storage.
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FSD v12.3.1
The software is already in use by a number of selected testers. The software is so good now that it is almost ready for wide release (IMO).
Ensuring that all new customers will get to see it in action. If they bought a new Tesla using a referral link, they will get 3 months free subscription (worth $600).
This should be a watershed moment that greatly increases the number of users making use of the software.
With thousands more users, this will greatly accelerate the learning process so that it improves exponentially.
The $TSLA share price continues to fall. At market close today (25/3/2024) it was $172.63. Meanwhile, Cybertruck production is increasing and construction has begun on a new Megapack Gigafactory in Shanghai, which will eventually produce 10,000 Megapacks per year.
Updates are rolling out fast. The latest version released on 31/3/2024 is 12.3.3.
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False Report from Reuters
After a false report from Reuters on 5/4/2024 that the Compact Tesla was being cancelled, $TSLA stock fell from $170 to $161 in half an hour, until Elon Musk said that Reuters is lying (again).
Warning to Investors
False rumours like this are typically spread by short-sellers who can make big profits from the rapid changes in the stock price that such rumours often cause.
Do not panic if the price drops. Do your own investigation into the rumour, and keep your focus on the long term.
5th April 2024: After the false rumours about the Compact Car being cancelled, Elon Musk announced the unveiling of the Robotaxi on August 8th. The compact car and the Robotaxi are different products, but will presumably share the same platform. It seems likely to me that the date of the reveal was announced early to counteract the false report by Reuters.
$TSLA closed at $164.90, but after hours is already back up to about $172.
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(Supervised) FSD 12.3.3
With the latest version comes a long-awaited name change. Clearly, a lot of non-technical users do not understand what Beta means. Beta software can make serious errors and FSD is no different. The driver must be attentive and ready to take over at a moment’s notice. Every Tesla crash while Autopilot or FSD has been active can be attributed to the driver not paying attention.
As the software gets better, drivers may get more complacent. This video is typical; the car drives without any intervention other than the driver touching the wheel from time to time. I wish all beta testers would keep their hands on the wheel at all times, even though the software is much more attentive than the average driver. One Billion miles have been driven on FSD without a single death. The number of miles driven is rising exponentially now that version 12.3.3 is available as a free trial to all Tesla owners with a compatible vehicle.
Most Wall Street analysts do not include revenue for FSD in their financial models, so their price targets are much more bearish than those like ARK Invest, who do. Will today be another green day, or will Elon’s Starlink battle with Brazil make the price drop again?
There is never a dull moment for $TSLA investors.,
(Supervised) FSD v.12.3.4
A day later and another update going out as a free one month trial and to legacy Tesla Model S/X owners.
12/4/2024: FSD Subscription halved from $199 to $99 per month. -
Q1 Earnings
Several key announcements have led to a big surge in the $TSLA stock price. Ron Baron was interviewed on Squawkbox CNBC yesterday and reaffirmed his optimism for the future of Tesla, saying that the stock price had “officially bottomed.”
From about $140 on Monday, to $145 on Tuesday, $160 on Wednesday, and $170 on Thursday, it is up again to $173 after trading hours.
FSD v.12.3.5 was released, and continues to amaze those testing it.
The Model 3 Performance was released in the US and Europe, and is expected to sell well.
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China Visit
Elon visited China yesterday, and announced a deal with Baidu, who make autonomous software, so they now have the mapping data needed to roll out FSD in China. $TSLA surged to almost $200 on Monday, and closed at $183.28 today.
FSD v.12.3.6 is rolling out to many more customers today.
Tesla Energy made 24.6% profit margins in Q1, compared to 18.5% for automotive.
Megapack deployments are expect to increase by at least 75% next year. -
Automated Vehicle Act
On May 20th 2024 the Automated Vehicle Act gained the royal assent and became law in the UK.
All Tesla need to do now is the polish (Supervised) FSD so that it no longer needs a driver in the vehicle. Like Waymo, a remote technician could be contacted by passengers if the vehicle gets completely stuck.
FSD v 12.4 is now rolling out to employees. It promised five to ten times fewer interventions, and version 12.5 is waiting for release in mid-June. Former Prime Minister, Boris Johnson was Wowed by a ride in a Tesla with FSD.
I previously thought that the public release of FSD in Europe and the UK might take another five years yet to get past regulatory hurdles, but this news indicates that it could happen in two years or less. The improvements are now increasing exponentially, like those in other forms of AI.
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2018 Elon Musk Compensation Deal and Texas Incorporation
The deal that was made for Elon Musk’s compensation package back in 2018 was negated by a Delaware judge for being excessive. Although shareholders voted for it, and investors thought that the targets were unreachable, Tesla exceeded them, and Elon was awarded share options worth $56 Billion. The share price has gone up tenfold, so the value of the compensation has also gone up tenfold.
The judge’s decision meant that Elon was paid nothing, after he worked his butt off for five years, saving Tesla from bankruptcy, and growing its value more than 10x in five years. The lawyers who filed the case for a share holder with 9 shares claims $ Billions in fees. I hope then never get a cent.
Shareholders have again voted in favour of Elon receiving what he was promised, and in favour of moving the business incorporation from Delaware to Texas. Hopefully, this will put an end to this corrupt decision that broke the contract made by the Tesla board to compensate Elon for his valuable contribution to Tesla.
If the court continues to interfere, contrary to the wish of the shareholders, a new deal can be made in Texas.
With this news, the $TSLA share price is already up by about 7% today.
- In other news, the Prufrock-3 machine has completed the tunnel joining the Austin Gigafactory to the vehicle outbound lot on the opposite side of the highway, and is already on its way to its next job, escorted by a Cybertruck and other Tesla vehicles.
- In China, Supervised Full Self-driving is gearing up for release.
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Tesla 2024 Annual Shareholder Meeting
Voting
- Election of James Murdock and Kimball Musk as directors approved for three years
- Approval of executive compensation on a non-binding basis
- Appointment of pricewaterhousecoopers LLP as Tesla’s independent accounting firm for 2024
- Approval of redomestication of Tesla from Delaware to TexasÂą
- Reapproval of Elon Musk’s 100% performance-based stock option award of 2018 (1.76 Billion Shares Voted in Favour of Musk Pay Package, 528.9 Million Against).
Elon Musk’s Presentation
- Most of the world does not yet understand the significance of Tesla Self-driving, which is heading towards unsupervised self-driving at an exponential rate. It will, without question, be safer than humans.
- Tesla owned fleet of robotaxis would be like Uber, Customer owned Teslas will be like AirBnB.
- Read the ARK Invest analysis for the most accurate estimate of Tesla’s value as a business of over $5 Trillion just based on vehicle autonomy, not including the Optimus humanoid robot.
- Tesla fleet is now six million cars
- Cybertruck production hit a record of 1,300 in a week
- Model 3 Performance is a great value product. Model Y is the best-selling car in the world
- Tesla Semi-truck economics are much better than diesel trucks. Will have a significant effect on Tesla revenues and total CO2 emission.
- Supercharging network still growing rapidly. Will spend $ 0.5 Billion by year end, and more chargers will be enabled for other vehicle manufacturers by using a charging adapter.
- Making good progress on the production of the 4680 battery. Lithium refinery in south Texas, and cathode manufacture at Austin help to protect supply chains.
- Megapack deployment heading towards a 200-300% increase in deployments from 15 GWh in 2023 to 40 GWh in 2024
- Tesla cars have the best available AI Chip, which was developed in-house. Hardware 3 is still improving. Hardware 4 data will be processed by the new data centre now under construction in the Austin Gigafactory extension. Hardware 4 is already in new cars. Hardware 5 is planned to be released in about 18 months, which will be another 10x improvement.
- A few Optimus robots are currently working in a Tesla factory. By next year it may be 1,000 when the next hardware version goes into small scale production.)
¹ Tesla do not waste time. “We have submitted all filings to effectuate our conversion into a Texas corporation and can confirm that the Company is now incorporated in Texas.” (Letter to Stockholders).
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Q2 Production and Delivery Results
Another excellent quarter with results that exceeded Wall Street consensus by some margin.
“Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2. About 33k more than production.
9.4 GWh of energy storage deployed. ”
The $TSLA share price rose to $231.26 at market close on 2/7/2024 from $209.86 at market close yesterday.
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Robotaxi Event in Warner Bros Studios
- Elon arrived in a Cybercab. It has two seats, gull-wing doors, no steering wheel or pedals. Fastening the seatbelts automatically closes the doors. There were twenty prototypes, and thirty Model 3s and Ys configured as Robotaxis. The Cybercab will be available for purchase at about $30K, hopefully before 2027. Charging is by induction, so no need to plug it in. The boot is spacious.
- Manufacture will use the new unboxed process. The body is not Stainless Steel, further reducing costs and complexity.
- A prototype Robovan with a capacity of twenty (14 seated) was also shown. It can also be configured to carry goods.
- Humanoid Robots walked among the attendees and served drinks at the bar. Each was controlled by a human operator to talk with attendees at the event. Some years yet before the Optimus robot becomes significant, but the potential is huge.
- $TSLA stock fell after the event, as often seems to happen after events. An opportunity to grab a few more shares at about $220.
The Robovan
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Q3 Financial Results
I was amazed that $TSLA fell after the Robotaxi event. Even when Cybercabs were seen driving passengers without a driver, steering wheel, or pedals, some people still believe that FSD will never happen. It has already happened; Tesla are starting mass production within months.
Today, the share price rose by a massive 22.5% to from $213.65 at market close on Wednesday to over $261 just before market close today (Thursday).
Of course, shares can go down fast too. One never really knows what will happen in the short term, but the long-term trend is obvious to those of us who watch what Tesla is doing ($TSLA has grown 1,254% in the last five years).
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The Trump Effect
Another extraordinary two weeks have seen $TSLA rise more than 50% from $213.65 to $321.22 at market close today (8/11/2024). There are a number of reasons for this.
- Excellent Q3 Financial results
- No more uncertainty over the US Election
- Elon Musk will be advising the US Government on reducing costs through the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). Elon has a great record at đť•Ź (Twitter), removing a lot of unproductive staff, and hiring those who are willing to work.
- Wall Street Analysts revising their targets after thinking more about the potential of AI and FSD.
The five-year growth is looking extremely healthy, though that may drop because five years ago, the share price began a long run up to its all time high of $407. Only time will tell if the current runup can replicate that.
Share prices can fall just as fast as they rose, but ARK Invests’ target of $2,600 for the end of 2029 is looking ever more likely. It depends heavily on the success of fully autonomous taxis (recently demonstrated at the We-Robot Event), and how long it takes to get regulatory approval. Elon having the ear of POTUS 47 bodes well for that. Love him or hate him, Elon has an outstanding track-record of achieving his goals, albeit sometimes later than he hoped.
13.68x Growth in Five Years -
Get Ready for Lift-off
The Starship’s Sixth Test Flight may not be the only thing going up next week.
Those who follow Tesla closely are predicting a 50% increase for $TSLA over the next three months. (Not investment advice. Predicting the short-term price changes for a volatile stock like $TSLA is a risky strategy).
(Supervised) FSD version 13 is close to release, and Trump’s team are making plans to ease the progress of autonomous vehicles.
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Whales
In stock trading, a whale is an institutional trader who manages funds measured in $ Billions who may buy or sell so many shares that it affects the stock price.
Brad Gurstner is one such fund manager who recently sold Uber stock and transferred funds to Tesla, because he is confident that FSD will soon be a huge source of revenue of the company.
In the last two weeks, $TSLA has risen again from $321.22 to $352.56, and the five year growth is currently over 16x.
Others think that Uber will grow, but they cannot cut costs in the same way that Tesla can. The driverless taxi company, Waymo is a five seater Jaguar with $8,000 worth of sensors. Tesla only has to flip a switch to enable FSD on millions of existing vehicles and build out wireless charging stations for when the Cybercab starts being available in large numbers. The Cybercab is currently on display at various locations in Europe; London last week, Berlin this week, etc. They are laying the groundwork for when FSD becomes available in Europe. City planners will see the benefits of driverless compact taxis: Lower costs, reduced risks for passengers, more efficient use of roads, and clean air guaranteed.
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Bitcoin Bonanza
As $TSLA shares continue to soar, their modest Bitcoin investment, which was criticised by many at the time, is now showing as over $1 Billion on their books. Watch the interview on Brighter with Herbert to learn why companies with spare cash might want to buy some BTC. Bitcoin has just passed the $100,000 mark.
Rave reviews of FSD v 13.2 are one reason for the continued surge in the $TSLA stock price, which at $389.22 on market close on Friday 6th December (and $394.67 in after market trading) is now up more than 16x in five years.
From my research, this is just the start of a new surge comparable to the one that happened five years ago when it surged from about $24 in December 2019 to the All-time High of $407 in October 2021.
Do your own research before investing your hard-earned savings. It is a roller-coaster ride, so hold tight.
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Two All-time Highs in a Week
$TSLA closed at an all-time high of $424.77 on Wednesday 11th December, and at another of $436.23 on Friday 13th.
- ÂŁ2,208 invested in 7 shares on 16th November 2020 is now 21 shares worth ÂŁ7,166.61 (~3.25x)
There are several signs for further growth next week:
- Supervised FSD due to be released in China (Actual Smart Summon has already been released)
- Record Tesla registrations in China (Nearly 67,000 new Tesla's have been insured in China in the last 4 weeks.)
- The first registered Cybertruck is now for sale in China.
- FSD 13.2 is receiving rave reviews from Beta testers, so it should be ready for wide release in N. America this year.
- Refreshed Model Y (Juniper) being tested under wraps on US roads. Heavy discounts on Model Ys indicate the imminent release of upgraded Model Y, Tesla’s best-selling vehicle. Fewer parts, improved features, and greater profit margins will again see demand exceeding supply while production ramps up.
- The Boring tunnel between the production line at the Austin Texas Gigafactory is almost ready to use. This will shorten the route to the outbound vehicle lot, ready for ramping up production for the Cybertruck.
- The Cybercab is undergoing extensive testing on the Austin Gigafactory site.
- Tesla’s market cap is now $1.4 Trillion — Cybercab alone is expected to add another $1 Trillion when it ramps up.
- Megapack production continues to ramp, with a new Gigafactory under construction in China.
- The construction of the Tesla Semi-truck factory is making good progress.
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Happy đť•Źmas
Some Tesla Bulls were predicting $500 by year end, a week or two back, which seemed overly optimistic then. With just 2 more trading days remaining that still seems unlikely, but not beyond the realm of possibilities.
The latest surge seems to be optimism over Q4 results. Tesla China have sold out their Model Y inventory, in preparation for the imminent launch of the Model Y (Juniper) refresh, which will have lower costs, more features, and better profit margins, if the Model 3 upgrade was anything to go by.
