🚀 Tesla to Mars 🚀
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The Trump Effect
Another extraordinary two weeks have seen $TSLA rise more than 50% from $213.65 to $321.22 at market close today (8/11/2024). There are a number of reasons for this.
- Excellent Q3 Financial results
- No more uncertainty over the US Election
- Elon Musk will be advising the US Government on reducing costs through the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). Elon has a great record at 𝕏 (Twitter), removing a lot of unproductive staff, and hiring those who are willing to work.
- Wall Street Analysts revising their targets after thinking more about the potential of AI and FSD.
The five-year growth is looking extremely healthy, though that may drop because five years ago, the share price began a long run up to its all time high of $407. Only time will tell if the current runup can replicate that.
Share prices can fall just as fast as they rose, but ARK Invests’ target of $2,600 for the end of 2029 is looking ever more likely. It depends heavily on the success of fully autonomous taxis (recently demonstrated at the We-Robot Event), and how long it takes to get regulatory approval. Elon having the ear of POTUS 47 bodes well for that. Love him or hate him, Elon has an outstanding track-record of achieving his goals, albeit sometimes later than he hoped.
13.68x Growth in Five Years -
Get Ready for Lift-off
The Starship’s Sixth Test Flight may not be the only thing going up next week.
Those who follow Tesla closely are predicting a 50% increase for $TSLA over the next three months. (Not investment advice. Predicting the short-term price changes for a volatile stock like $TSLA is a risky strategy).
(Supervised) FSD version 13 is close to release, and Trump’s team are making plans to ease the progress of autonomous vehicles.
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Whales
In stock trading, a whale is an institutional trader who manages funds measured in $ Billions who may buy or sell so many shares that it affects the stock price.
Brad Gurstner is one such fund manager who recently sold Uber stock and transferred funds to Tesla, because he is confident that FSD will soon be a huge source of revenue of the company.
In the last two weeks, $TSLA has risen again from $321.22 to $352.56, and the five year growth is currently over 16x.
Others think that Uber will grow, but they cannot cut costs in the same way that Tesla can. The driverless taxi company, Waymo is a five seater Jaguar with $8,000 worth of sensors. Tesla only has to flip a switch to enable FSD on millions of existing vehicles and build out wireless charging stations for when the Cybercab starts being available in large numbers. The Cybercab is currently on display at various locations in Europe; London last week, Berlin this week, etc. They are laying the groundwork for when FSD becomes available in Europe. City planners will see the benefits of driverless compact taxis: Lower costs, reduced risks for passengers, more efficient use of roads, and clean air guaranteed.
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Bitcoin Bonanza
As $TSLA shares continue to soar, their modest Bitcoin investment, which was criticised by many at the time, is now showing as over $1 Billion on their books. Watch the interview on Brighter with Herbert to learn why companies with spare cash might want to buy some BTC. Bitcoin has just passed the $100,000 mark.
Rave reviews of FSD v 13.2 are one reason for the continued surge in the $TSLA stock price, which at $389.22 on market close on Friday 6th December (and $394.67 in after market trading) is now up more than 16x in five years.
From my research, this is just the start of a new surge comparable to the one that happened five years ago when it surged from about $24 in December 2019 to the All-time High of $407 in October 2021.
Do your own research before investing your hard-earned savings. It is a roller-coaster ride, so hold tight.
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Two All-time Highs in a Week
$TSLA closed at an all-time high of $424.77 on Wednesday 11th December, and at another of $436.23 on Friday 13th.
- £2,208 invested in 7 shares on 16th November 2020 is now 21 shares worth £7,166.61 (~3.25x)
There are several signs for further growth next week:
- Supervised FSD due to be released in China (Actual Smart Summon has already been released)
- Record Tesla registrations in China (Nearly 67,000 new Tesla's have been insured in China in the last 4 weeks.)
- The first registered Cybertruck is now for sale in China.
- FSD 13.2 is receiving rave reviews from Beta testers, so it should be ready for wide release in N. America this year.
- Refreshed Model Y (Juniper) being tested under wraps on US roads. Heavy discounts on Model Ys indicate the imminent release of upgraded Model Y, Tesla’s best-selling vehicle. Fewer parts, improved features, and greater profit margins will again see demand exceeding supply while production ramps up.
- The Boring tunnel between the production line at the Austin Texas Gigafactory is almost ready to use. This will shorten the route to the outbound vehicle lot, ready for ramping up production for the Cybertruck.
- The Cybercab is undergoing extensive testing on the Austin Gigafactory site.
- Tesla’s market cap is now $1.4 Trillion — Cybercab alone is expected to add another $1 Trillion when it ramps up.
- Megapack production continues to ramp, with a new Gigafactory under construction in China.
- The construction of the Tesla Semi-truck factory is making good progress.
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Happy 𝕏mas
Some Tesla Bulls were predicting $500 by year end, a week or two back, which seemed overly optimistic then. With just 2 more trading days remaining that still seems unlikely, but not beyond the realm of possibilities.
The latest surge seems to be optimism over Q4 results. Tesla China have sold out their Model Y inventory, in preparation for the imminent launch of the Model Y (Juniper) refresh, which will have lower costs, more features, and better profit margins, if the Model 3 upgrade was anything to go by.
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Cybertruck Bombing at Trump Tower
The “exploding battery pack” FUD headlines were quickly debunked. This was apparently a suicide bombing by a Trump supporter.
Elon promised to buff out the scratches, and get the truck back on the road. It was not severely damaged by the firework mortars set off in the trunk. Most of the blast force when upwards. However, seven passers-by were injured, and the driver was found dead from a gunshot wound? No doubt there is more to learn about this tragic event.
$TSLA fell below $400 briefly, but is again heading up, closing on $410.44 today.
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New Model Y Launch
Launched in China, US, and now in the UK.
Rear badge, puddle light, doorsill plate woodmark, vegan suede for black interior, acceleration boost for all-wheel drive, Full Self-driving (Supervised), $59,990 (before tax credits). Order now in the US for delivery in March.
Austin Gigafactory Tunnel
The Prufrock tunnel between the factory and the outbound vehicle lot (for final quality checks, and loading on transporters), is now open for use. This will save about a mile of driving via the roads around the Gigafactory site. We can expect that no driver will be needed later, as they can use FSD on private roads.
$TSLA share price is still relatively low, at only $412.38 on market close today, 24/1/2025.
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Q4 Earnings Call
$TSLA share price fell to $389.10 at market close on 29/1/2025, but after market rose back over $400 due to the positive announcements in the Q4 Earnings Call.
FSD (Unsupervised) is now being used at the Freemont Factory to move vehicles 1.2 miles from the end of the production line to the outbound vehicle lot. This will save costs, and allow employees to focus on production. It is only a matter of time before the Austin Gigafactory follows suit by moving the Cybertrucks through the tunnel to the outbound lot.
Unsupervised Paid Robotaxi Service will be launching in June 2025 in Austin, Texas.
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FSD Launched in Mexico
Full Self-driving (Supervised) is now available in Mexico.
Meanwhile, the $TSLA share price has fallen to $328.50, almost as low as it was on November 27th 2024 ($332.89).
Tesla just produced over 1,500 Powerwall 3s in one 24 hour period, up 50% from their previous peak of 1,000 three months ago.
The Megapack factory in China just started production, only about 10 months after the factory construction began.
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@edwardp Full Self-driving cannot come soon enough. Only a human being can be daft or distracted enough to press the accelerator pedal instead of the brake pedal.
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Teslas Need very little Maintenance
“If Teslas are so reliable why do I always see Tesla owners popping the hood?” (Jeremy Wick on 𝕏)
FSD is Killing it in China
Driving in snow. The video is sped up; speeds are in kmh.
