🚀 Tesla to Mars 🚀

[Pesala]

@edwardp said:

And where is the $25,000 EV that's been mentioned?

$25,000 in 2016 would be $35,000 in 2023.

The affordable EV is already here. With US incentives from the (badly named) Inflation Reduction Act, a Tesla Model 3 can be bought for $36,740, which is below the average cost of a new car, and affordable for many Americans. After accounting for fuel costs and maintenance, it looks even more affordable.

The $25,000 compact car is still a year away. Tesla already broke ground on the Gigafactory in Mexico, which will build it.

Battery pack prices continue to decline. Higher energy density means fewer cells needed, lighter weight, and more range, plus faster charging. The Model 3 Highland (refreshed Model 3) is already on the way.

[Pesala]

Positive News

• Ford makes agreement with Tesla, who will open 12,000 Super-charging stations for Ford vehicles. Ford will adopt the Tesla North America Charging (NAC) standard for the charging cable and connector.
• Model Y was the best-selling car of any kind in the world
• Model Y registrations in the UK rose by 1,400% in April (from 118 to 1,813 units)
• FSD Beta v.11.3.6 was released to any eligible vehicle in North America
• FSD Beta v.11.4.2 was released to some Beta testers
• A couple of cars in Australia (right-hand drive) and Europe received FSD Beta — early days, but it is clearly on its way.
• The long-delayed 2020 Tesla Roadster will see engineering completed this year, and hopefully will be released in 2024. It is a tiny market, so the project got moved to the back-burner.
• Cars with Level 4 hardware began shipping. Faster processing, HD radar, HD cameras, more cameras, and higher power consumption.
• Tesla dominated a survey of the most driven miles by EVs
• Uber launched a fleet of 25,000 Teslas in India.

[edwardp]

@Pesala said in Tesla to Mars :

@edwardp said:

And where is the $25,000 EV that's been mentioned?

$25,000 in 2016 would be $35,000 in 2023.

The affordable EV is already here. With US incentives from the (badly named) Inflation Reduction Act, a Tesla Model 3 can be bought for $36,740, which is below the average cost of a new car, and affordable for many Americans. After accounting for fuel costs and maintenance, it looks even more affordable.

The $25,000 compact car is still a year away. Tesla already broke ground on the Gigafactory in Mexico, which will build it.

Battery pack prices continue to decline. Higher energy density means fewer cells needed, lighter weight, and more range, plus faster charging. The Model 3 Highland (refreshed Model 3) is already on the way.

The affordable price point needs to be USD $25,000.

$36,000+ is still too expensive for some people.

[Pesala]

@edwardp Even $25,000 is too expensive for many people. A new Tesla Model 3 is less than the average price in the US, and this is still a premium vehicle, not a basic model.

[edwardp]

@Pesala My vision of a basic model:

• $25,000 price point.

• No autopilot/self-driving features. The concept of an EV is how it is powered, not how it is driven.

• Radio (AM/FM (U.S.) with CD and Bluetooth standard, SiriusXM (in U.S. and Canada, not sure if it's international beyond this) as an option). (Example: when my mobile connects to the radio in my vehicle via Bluetooth, I then have an option to make or receive phone calls through the radio's touch-screen and can also stream Internet radio stations.)

• Heat and air conditioning.

• Must be comfortable for all passengers, with plenty of leg room.

• Decent battery life.

• Vehicle can be charged at any charging station.

[edwardp]

Someone just sent me this link. Granted, it's only one person's opinion:

https://www.the-sun.com/motors/8223062/bought-tesla-quality-awful-cars-elon/

[Pesala]

@edwardp Trash talk is about right, and what one would expect from a tabloid like the Sun. The door-closing issue would be fixed under warranty. The panel gaps are a complete non-issue.

If you want to buy one, watch a professional review.

If you want to invest in TSLA, investigate the company’s performance: deliveries, sales, profit margins, etc., and do not forget that it is not just a car company, but also sells battery storage, solar panels, insurance, etc.

[edwardp]

GM joins Ford in gaining access to Tesla's Supercharger network.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/08/gm-tesla-partner-on-ev-charging-network.html

[Pesala]

@edwardp This is good news for EV drivers, and can only help with the transition to clean transport. Perhaps it explains why TSLA is up another 3% after market close on a good day of 4.58% growth. There are many good signs contributing to this rapid growth.

My own investment has grown by 50% in the last six weeks.

[edwardp]

Most accidents do not make the news, unless it's serious. But when it involves a Tesla...

https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2023/06/12/bfd-rescues-driver-whose-tesla-got-scrunched-between-tanker-truck-and-highway-barrier/?p1=hp_featurestack

[Pesala]

@edwardp If you are in a crash, you will be grateful to be in a Tesla.

250ft Plunge off Devil's Slide.

[edwardp]

@Pesala said in Tesla to Mars :

@edwardp If you are in a crash, you will be grateful to be in a Tesla.

250ft Plunge of Devil's Slide.

That was the incident where the doctor was trying to kill his entire family.

I will grant you that it's incredible all four were extricated alive.

[Pesala]

@edwardp The case is in court now. Dr Patel appears in court today, and a decision will be made based on the evidence presented, whether to charge him with attempted murder.

[Pesala]

Made in America

This year, Tesla took all four top spots:

1. Model Y
2. Model 3
3. Model X
4. Model S
5. Honda Passport
6. Volkswagen ID.4
7. Honda Odyssey
8. Acura MDX
9. Honda Ridgeline
10. AcuraRDX

TSLA closed at $264.61 today, more than $100 up on two months ago. FSD v.11.4.4 has now been released to about 25% of eligible users, and the results are looking good.

Rumours of the Model 3 Refresh (Project Highland) continue, and 1.5 million who have pre-ordered the Cybertruck are getting excited. One has been sent to New Zealand for Winter testing, a sure sign that release is getting close.

[Pesala]

Beware of the FUD

Dan O'Dowd, the CEO of Greenhills Software, who develop self-driving software, has been engaged in a long campaign to get Tesla FSD banned by NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration). He persuaded an FSD Beta user to take him on a route that he had chosen, using the FSD Beta Software. Dan Claimed:

In my ride along with Ross Gerber, full Sellf-Driving ran a stop sign at 35mph. If Ross hadn't slammed on the brakes, FSD would have T-boned a car obeying the urles. FSD tried to kill us in an hour of city driving! Everyone should demand it be banned immediately. @NHTSAgov

In fact:

1. The Stop Sign was preceded by a warning sign, indicating that there was a Stop sign ahead, currently concealed by a bend in the road.
2. Ross Gerber was unfamiliar with the route and only applied the brakes, disengaging the software, because he feared that the software would not respond in time. Before Ross disengaged, the software displayed a message that the car was stopping for a stop sign.
3. The Stop sign is 40ft before the stop line at the intersection. Ross braked and stopped before the stop line, but after the Stop sign.
4. Neither the software, nor Ross Gerber ran the stop line, and would not have T-boned a car that was cutting the corner before its driver noticed the fast-approaching Tesla. Since the stop sign is 40ft before the stop line, any car will have to pass the stop sign to reach the intersection. The speed limit is 35mph
5. Dan O'Down Promoted the tweet, so he was paying Twitter to show the video to more users.
6. FSD Beta makes driving much safer. Banning it would be a retrograde step.

See the full video debunked by James Stephenson.

[Pesala]

Q2 Results

Tesla produced 479,700 and delivered 486,140 vehicles in Q2 2023, another record, beating Wall Street expectations of about 447,000.

Getting Interesting

Period	Shares	Invested	Sell Price	Change	Interest
Nov-2020-2021	63	£10,271.15	£13,893.22	£3,622.07	35.26%
Nov-2021-2022	39	£7,452.36	£8,600.56	£1,148.20	15.41%
Nov-2022-2023	42	£5,751.31	£9,262.14	£3,510.83	61.04%

After the outstanding Q2 results, the TSLA share price has risen to nearly $280 per share at market close on July 3rd. Medium term investments now show a useful rate of return. After deducting all transaction costs, the rate of return is more than enough to compensate for inflation, with several months left until November.

YouTubers who follow Tesla closely are predicting rapid growth this year when the Cybertruck goes on sale (expected in Q3).

[Pesala]

Q2 Earnings Call

Wednesday 19th July after market close

• Record production and deliveries
• Record energy profits @ 18% gross margin
• Costs declined faster than prices
• 1st Cybertruck release candidates produced
• FSD Beta surpassed 300 million miles driven
• Discussions with major OEM about FSD licensing
• Dojo production started (Tesla's AI supercomputer)
• Texas 4680 battery production +80% quarter on quarter, cost of goods down 25%
• Next gen “Cybercell” 4680 battery will have 10% greater energy density
• Added more than 5,000 Super-charger stations
• $1 Billion free cash flow.

The share price fell about $30 from $290 at market close on Wednesday to $260 at market close on Friday 21st July. It is hard to understand why on the back of so much positive news, but it may be due to announcements about the closing of production lines for updating. They may be clearing out Model 3 inventory to make way for the redesigned Model 3 Highland with revamped Hardware 4.

For long-term investors, it is just another opportunity to buy at a lower price. A week later, on 28th July, the price was back up to $266.44.

13.45x Growth in Five Years

[Pesala]

Range Anxiety

Due to the inferior design of other EVs, many would-be customers are still worried about their viability due to the difficulty of finding somewhere to charge, and/or the time that it adds to the journey.

TeslaAsia drove two Tesla Model 3 cars to Qomolangma Base Camp of Mount Everest in Tibet at 5,200m elevation. When the hotels were full, they slept in the car, using camp mode. Even ICE cars have difficulty getting to this destination.

For most commuters, 200 miles of range is adequate. If you plan on taking long road trips, live in a cold climate, or need to tow a boat, it is better to pay a bit more for a long range model.

[Pesala]

Model 3 Highland

The long anticipated Model 3 Refresh, code-named “Highland,” was released on September 1st in China. There, orders for the Model 3 have increased almost tenfold. It is also available in Norway (Set Vivaldi to automatically translate Norwegian to your preferred language). It will not be coming to the UK, the US, or Canada for a while, as far as I know.

Key Improvements

• Available in China and EU from 1st September 2023
• About 5% more expensive
• 1 inch Longer, and 1 inch less high. 0.219 drag coefficient vs 0.225 for previous Model 3
• 1 cubic ft more storage space
• Two New Colours: Stealth Grey and Ultra Red - optional colours are now free, even the Ultra Red, which was previously a $3,000 option.
• No more stalks — controls on steering wheel, including horn on the centre
• New Headlight and Tail Lights, removed Fog Lights
• Stronger doors for better side impact protection
• Improved suspension
• New wheel rims and tyres
• Interior LED Ambient Lighting
• New 15.4 inch touch screen with smaller bezels, brighter and more responsive
• 8 inch video screen for rear seat passengers with two headphone sockets
• 17 loudspeakers instead of 14, improved microphones, and passenger-side too, for clearer phone calls
• All-round acoustic glass and sound absorbing fabrics for 30% less noise from the road
• Ventilated front seats and perforated rear seats
• Separate climate controls for driver and front seat passenger
• 65 watt USB C charging, and improved blue tooth and WiFi connectivity
• Test Drive with the Fully Charged Show (Reviewers all seem to be enthusiastic about the improvements).

In the first full day of trading since the announcement, TSLA has risen by 4.69%. Growth in the last five years is now 14.62x (1,462%).
The Cybertruck launch will be coming soon, which may prove even more dramatic, as it has over two million pre-orders.

[Pesala]

Irrational Fear of EVs

The burning of 15 Tesla vehicles in Germany was arson

A left-wing radical group has claimed responsibility for the arson of 15 Teslas in Frankfurt-Fechenheim.

The act took place on the occasion of the IAA in Munich and in protest against the Tesla company and entrepreneur Elon Musk, according to an unverified and anonymous statement on the Internet.

"The corporation represents like no other the ideology of green capitalism and the continuing global and colonial destruction." Presenting e-cars as a climate-friendly alternative is a "cynical lie" because of the origin of the components, the letter said.”

They should read the Tesla Impact Report 2022 to learn about the lifetime environment impact of battery electric vehicles compared to that of petrol and diesel vehicles. Burning EVs has a far greater impact than they will have in ten years of driving, while replacing 15 ICE vehicles performing the same function. Of course, if everyone cycled or took public transport, the impact would be less, but that is not a practical choice for most people.