🚀 Tesla to Mars 🚀

[Pesala]

@MidnightRaccoon I just used a round number to make the mental arithmetic easy for normal people. Guessing the share price is a mug's game.

My first seven shares, bought at $408 for £2,208 could now be sold for £5,189. Much of this growth is due to the $/£ exchange rate changing from 0.7577 to 0.845 in the last 21 months. This is good for selling shares, but not so good for buying.

Nevertheless, $296 is a bargain for such a successful company, in my opinion. The Texas Gigafactory is already producing over 1,000 vehicles per week with huge profit margins. Demand seems to be virtually unlimited. It will remain higher than production for years yet.

EVs are just part of the story. Solar roofs, battery storage, and insurance are just getting going. The Humanoid Robot has even greater potential.

Full Self-driving at $15,000 is nearly all profit. If you understand its potential, that is actually very cheap, though it sounds a lot for a software package.

Do the maths: if you commute two hours a day, five days a week, Full Self-driving (when it is fully autonomous) will give you ten hours a week to do productive work or relax and plan your evening with the family. It can send/fetch your family members to school, the airport, or the hospital. How much is your time worth? Only 10 hours a week @ $20 an hour is $10,400 a year already.

[Pesala]

FSD Beta Wide Release

The latest version is available for anyone with FSD software who has a safety score of 80 or above, which is basically anyone who wants it.

There are already a lot of new videos on YouTube.

Exchange Rates

The weak pound means that the selling price is much higher than usual. Back in March, the exchange rate was £0.7583 to the $, but now it is hovering around £0.92 to the $. Three shares now sell for £738 instead of only £605. Of course, it also makes US stock relatively expensive to buy, and one could lose money if the US dollar weakens in the future.

Update: The rest of my savings were invested yesterday. Ready for launch when the bad weather clears up. The Optimus humanoid robot was demonstrated just now. Q3 Results coming soon.

[Pesala]

Tesla AI Supercut

Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily has condensed the presentation onto a 23 Minute Supercut

[Pesala]

Launch Delayed due to Bad Weather

TSLA down again today by 7.55% as the recession bites and fears over the Ukraine war continue.

Now only 12x what the share price was three years ago, and only 1.5x what it was when I started investing. The £/$ exchange rate from about .76 to .84 in that period has gone a long way to protecting my investment.

Tesla continues to go from strength to strength. Production up, profit margins up, EV credit coming, Berlin and Austin factory production ramping up, Tesla Semi-truck deliveries starting on December 1st, 10,000 cars waiting for export from Shanghai, Full Self-driving Beta in use by 160,000 users. Q3 Earnings report due next Wednesday, October 19th.

[Pesala]

10% Recovery

The TSLA share price has recovered from the low of $205 a fortnight ago to $225 by market close today. The business continues to grow.

• Model Y best-selling vehicle in Europe during September
• Three new Megapack Projects in the UK to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, Elon has changed his Twitter handle to Chief Twit as he prepares to purchase the social media platform. He seems to be in good spirits as he walks into Twitter HQ carrying a sink.

Let that sink in — I missed the Dad Joke at first. Love him, or hate him, Elon is not like other CEOs.

[Pesala]

Tesla Semi Delivery Day

Event Begins - Presentation is only five minutes long.
Summary of Key Points

• In the US, heavy trucks account for 20% of vehicle emissions, and 36% of vehicle particulate emissions, so it is important for health reasons, especially for people living near highways
• Tesla’s mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy
• Three plaid motors — one is always engaged, the other two are used when needed for high torque and acceleration
• Drive at full-speed up gradients
• Regenerative braking down gradients is much safer than brakes that can overheat and fail
• 2 kWh per mile efficiency. 500-mile range tested from Fremont to San Diego (negligible difference in elevation, but trip includes some climbs)
• Comfortable to drive with plenty of cabin storage
• Version 4, 1 Megawatt super-charger will also be coming to the Cybertruck (this was the only surprise announcement)

[Pesala]

Tesla Semi will change everything

Dave Lee chats with Mayur Thaker, a co-portfolio manager at Sachs Investment Research, about the financial implications of the Tesla Semi truck.

Do some back of a napkin maths for yourself. The target for next year is 50,000 Semi trucks. If they make $50,000 on each truck, that would be $2.5 Billion profit. However, there is also the megachargers, megapacks, and solar panel installations to support those trucks. Add another $1 billion for that.

[Pesala]

A Cybertruck for Europe?

Teslarati reports on a sketch of a two-door Cybertruck at the Petersen Automotive Museum.

The original four door Cybertruck would be too large for Europe, but this one might work. I believe that the main issue is meeting regulations for collisions with pedestrians.

[Pesala]

VPP in Texas

Virtual Power Plants are another source of revenue for owners of Tesla Power Walls.

Teslarati reports on the new VPP for Texas. Besides earning revenue for Powerwall owners, a VPP helps to stabilise the grid, and provide blackout protection.

Meanwhile, the TSLA share price is at bargain-basement prices, due to factors that are unrelated to Tesla’s expanding production.

[Pesala]

Drive Carefully

Tesla Plunges 250ft Down a Cliff, but all four occupants survived.

If you do crash, make sure you’re in a Tesla.

TSLA Stock Falls off a Cliff

TSLA fell another 12% today, closing at just $108, which is significantly less than when I started investing at $408 (before the 3:1 split). Some investors are getting nervous, but I am investing more at every opportunity.

The Federal Tax Credit is clearly biased against Tesla. They had to do something, as the Model Y is the top-selling EV. The Inflation Reduction Act is very favourable to hybrids, which are being phased out in the UK.

Eligibility

In what kind of alternate reality does this make sense if the aim is to cut CO2 emissions? Other SUVs are classified in the $80,000 price band, but only the 7-seater Model Y qualifies as an SUV.

[Pesala]

Latest Update

The Driver of the Tesla has been charged with attempted murder and child abuse.

Allegedly, he drove off the cliff intentionally.

[Pesala]

Q4 2022 Earnings

• 2022 was the best year ever. Tesla achieved a 17% operating margin, $12.5 billion in nett income, and $7.5 billion in free cash flow, despite significant challenges.
• Demand is about twice the rate of production.
• Costs are dropping with growth in production at Berlin and Austin, as expected.
• FSD Beta is deployed to about 400K customers in N. America.
• 4680 Battery Cell production increased by 100GWh.
• Energy storage saw record growth and continues to accelerate.
• We expect Federal credits for cell production to become very significant, if we get anywhere near our 1,000 GWh target.
• 17% of customers are using Tesla Insurance, and that is increasing. Many small changes to vehicle design to bring down repair costs.
• Cybertruck production will start Summer of 2023, but will be small at first.
• Vehicle production target for 2023 is 1.8 million, but could be 2 million if everything goes smoothly.

TSLA is up nearly 11% at market close to $160.27. Still a long way to go to reach the levels before the war in Ukraine, but there are many signs of 2023 being a good year.

Edit: One day later, and TSLA up another 11% to $177.90.

[Pesala]

The rules for the EV credit have been changed so that the Model Y qualifies as an SUV, and is now eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit.

• TSLA share price rose another 6.79% to $189.98.
• Elon Musk was found not guilty of fraud over the “Going Private - Funding Secured” tweet
• Sightings of Cybertruck Beta and Project Highland Model 3 are promising signs for 2023.
• Production at the Megapack Megafactory ramp up towards 10,000 Megapacks, or 40GWh of clean energy storage a year.
• Update: By 9/2/2023, TSLA is up another 9% to $207.32.

[Pesala]

Elon Musk

@elonmusk 4h
What do you call an infinite gear ratio?
All torque, no action.

[Pesala]

Fatal Tesla Model Y Crash

Investigation finds accelerator was pressed in viral video.

As usual, Tesla crash was caused by human error / intentional action. Do not believe the headlines in the mainstream media, which always try to link crashes to software faults. It is just clickbait.

[Pesala]

2023 Investor Day

Tesla Channel • Tesla Daily Supercut

The live feed from the Gigafactory in Austin, Texas, has now ended. Skip to find the start of the actual presentation.

• Converting the Earth to Sustainable Energy
• Next Generation car will be manufactured more efficiently
• Cybertruck will be released this year. Video of Beta Prototype.
• Powertrain factory will be more efficient
• Reduce or eliminate use of Rare Earths
• Fewer wires for controllers reduced weight and complexity
• Cybertruck and future vehicles will us more efficient 48 volt Lithium low-voltage batteries that will last for the life-time of the vehicle.
• Real crash data improves vehicle safety design
• Real travel data influences the optimal size of battery packs and adjusts the suspension for rough roads.
• Optimus robot is improving with real-world artificial intelligence. It uses custom actuators designed by Tesla engineers.
• Supercharging is getting cheaper and faster. Stations are opening up to other electric vehicles. A/C stations using more renewable energy.
• New factories for Lithium refining and Cathode manufacture.
• Rapid growth of Tesla Megapack. Costs declining, and deployment getting faster. Electronic controllers to stabilise the grid.
• Unlimited overnight charging in Texas for $30 a month.
• Next generation vehicle will cost 50% less.
• Gigafactory to be built in Mexico near Monterrey

Master Plan Part 3

Live Blog @ Teslarati

[Pesala]

@Pesala said in Tesla to Mars :

£2,208 invested in 7 shares on 16th November 2020 is currently worth £6,118.

• £2,208 invested in 7 shares on 16th November 2020 is currently worth only £3,167 (21 shares, post-split).

Although the global recession and War in Ukraine have depressed the TSLA stock price, this is still 143% growth in 2.3 years - much better than keeping the money in a building society savings account at a 5% compounded interest rate.

Full Self-driving Beta v.11.3 is already being used by a number of experienced Beta testers. Due to their positive feedback, owners of FSD will only have to wait a few more days to obtain the latest update.

19th March 2023 FSD Beta v11.3.2 starts rolling out to more beta testers.

[Pesala]

Gruber Motors

What’s Wrong with Tesla?

• £2,208 invested in 7 shares on 16th November 2020 is currently worth £3,483 (21 shares, post-split).
• Growth in TSLA over the last three years is 6.44x, or over 186% interest per annum, compounded.
• March 26th 2023: FSD Beta v11.3.3 has started going out to beta testers.
• April 1st 2023: FSD Beta v.11.3.4 (Dirty Tesla)
• April 11th 2023: FSD Beta v.11.3.6 (Chuck Cook)
• Updated details on eligibility of vehicles for Federal credits are also expected.
• Production at Shanghai has already broken records. Gigafactory Berlin is producing 5,000 cars a week. Gigafactory Austin produced 4,000 cars in one week.
• Tesla produced 440,808 vehicles & delivered 422,875 in Q1, 2023.

[Pesala]

This Year we Kill the Ice

Tesla Aims for Hyper Growth.

“This year we will kill the combustion engine.”

TeslaMag Article in German (use Vivaldi’s translate feature to translate it to English, or your mother-tongue.

It is part of Tesla’s mission statement to transition vehicles to sustainable energy, so not really anything new here. Just a warning of their intent to continue aggressive goals for production and sales in Europe. For investors, this will probably mean that TSLA stock remains below $200 for a while yet. Tesla has plenty of revenue and cash, but it is re-investing heavily in new factories to fulfil its mission. Solar Power, Battery Storage, Super-charging, and Insurance are also significant growth areas.

ARK Invest recently announced their price target of $2,000 in 2027, while the current price is only about $160.

Meanwhile, Full Self-driving Beta v 11.4.1 has gone out to some beta testers, and European regulators may allow it earlier than expected, at the start of 2024.

[Pesala]

2023 Annual Shareholders Meeting

• J.B. Straubel elected to Board of Directors
• Shareholders voted against independent monitoring of Cobalt production. In response, Elon said (joked) that they would do it, by setting up a webcam in the cobalt mines, so anyone can let Tesla know if they spot any children. (If you want to complain about the use of cobalt, complain to the manufacturer of your mobile phone).
• Move from 12 to 48 volt architecture for low voltage circuits will need about a quarter as much copper.
• Broke ground on a new lithium mine in Corpus Christi because nobody else was investing enough in lithium production.
• Cybertruck delivery event to be held later this year.
• Two new products to be announced later this year (hinted at Model 3 Highland, and Optimus Robot?), Elon’s guess five million units a year combined.
• Optimus humanoid robot demo. All components designed by Tesla.
• Tesla will try a little advertising.
• Tesla Roadster engineering design to be completed this year. No promises, but it might be released next year.